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 conditional independence testing


Fast Flow Matching based Conditional Independence Tests for Causal Discovery

Zhao, Shunyu, Yang, Yanfeng, Li, Shuai, Fukumizu, Kenji

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Constraint-based causal discovery methods require a large number of conditional independence (CI) tests, which severely limits their practical applicability due to high computational complexity. Therefore, it is crucial to design an algorithm that accelerates each individual test. To this end, we propose the Flow Matching-based Conditional Independence Test (FMCIT). The proposed test leverages the high computational efficiency of flow matching and requires the model to be trained only once throughout the entire causal discovery procedure, substantially accelerating causal discovery. According to numerical experiments, FMCIT effectively controls type-I error and maintains high testing power under the alternative hypothesis, even in the presence of high-dimensional conditioning sets. In addition, we further integrate FMCIT into a two-stage guided PC skeleton learning framework, termed GPC-FMCIT, which combines fast screening with guided, budgeted refinement using FMCIT. This design yields explicit bounds on the number of CI queries while maintaining high statistical power. Experiments on synthetic and real-world causal discovery tasks demonstrate favorable accuracy-efficiency trade-offs over existing CI testing methods and PC variants.


Conditional independence testing under misspecified inductive biases

Neural Information Processing Systems

Conditional independence (CI) testing is a fundamental and challenging task in modern statistics and machine learning. Many modern methods for CI testing rely on powerful supervised learning methods to learn regression functions or Bayes predictors as an intermediate step; we refer to this class of tests as regression-based tests. Although these methods are guaranteed to control Type-I error when the supervised learning methods accurately estimate the regression functions or Bayes predictors of interest, their behavior is less understood when they fail due to misspecified inductive biases; in other words, when the employed models are not flexible enough or when the training algorithm does not induce the desired predictors. Then, we study the performance of regression-based CI tests under misspecified inductive biases. Namely, we propose new approximations or upper bounds for the testing errors of three regression-based tests that depend on misspecification errors. Moreover, we introduce the Rao-Blackwellized Predictor Test (RBPT), a regression-based CI test robust against misspecified inductive biases. Finally, we conduct experiments with artificial and real data, showcasing the usefulness of our theory and methods.


Conditional Independence Testing using Generative Adversarial Networks

Neural Information Processing Systems

We consider the hypothesis testing problem of detecting conditional dependence, with a focus on high-dimensional feature spaces. Our contribution is a new test statistic based on samples from a generative adversarial network designed to approximate directly a conditional distribution that encodes the null hypothesis, in a manner that maximizes power (the rate of true negatives). We show that such an approach requires only that density approximation be viable in order to ensure that we control type I error (the rate of false positives); in particular, no assumptions need to be made on the form of the distributions or feature dependencies. Using synthetic simulations with high-dimensional data we demonstrate significant gains in power over competing methods. In addition, we illustrate the use of our test to discover causal markers of disease in genetic data.


K-Nearest-Neighbor Local Sampling Based Conditional Independence Testing

Neural Information Processing Systems

Conditional independence (CI) testing is a fundamental task in statistics and machine learning, but its effectiveness is hindered by the challenges posed by high-dimensional conditioning variables and limited data samples. This article introduces a novel testing approach to address these challenges and enhance control of the type I error while achieving high power under alternative hypotheses. The proposed approach incorporates a computationally efficient classifier-based conditional mutual information (CMI) estimator, capable of capturing intricate dependence structures among variables. To approximate a distribution encoding the null hypothesis, a $k$-nearest-neighbor local sampling strategy is employed. An important advantage of this approach is its ability to operate without assumptions about distribution forms or feature dependencies. Furthermore, it eliminates the need to derive asymptotic null distributions for the estimated CMI and avoids dataset splitting, making it particularly suitable for small datasets.


Conditional Independence Testing with Heteroskedastic Data and Applications to Causal Discovery

Neural Information Processing Systems

Conditional independence (CI) testing is frequently used in data analysis and machine learning for various scientific fields and it forms the basis of constraint-based causal discovery. Oftentimes, CI testing relies on strong, rather unrealistic assumptions. One of these assumptions is homoskedasticity, in other words, a constant conditional variance is assumed. We frame heteroskedasticity in a structural causal model framework and present an adaptation of the partial correlation CI test that works well in the presence of heteroskedastic noise, given that expert knowledge about the heteroskedastic relationships is available. Further, we provide theoretical consistency results for the proposed CI test which carry over to causal discovery under certain assumptions. Numerical causal discovery experiments demonstrate that the adapted partial correlation CI test outperforms the standard test in the presence of heteroskedasticity and is on par for the homoskedastic case. Finally, we discuss the general challenges and limits as to how expert knowledge about heteroskedasticity can be accounted for in causal discovery.


Toward Scalable and Valid Conditional Independence Testing with Spectral Representations

Frohlich, Alek, Kostic, Vladimir, Lounici, Karim, Perazzo, Daniel, Pontil, Massimiliano

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Conditional independence (CI) is central to causal inference, feature selection, and graphical modeling, yet it is untestable in many settings without additional assumptions. Existing CI tests often rely on restrictive structural conditions, limiting their validity on real-world data. Kernel methods using the partial covariance operator offer a more principled approach but suffer from limited adaptivity, slow convergence, and poor scalability. In this work, we explore whether representation learning can help address these limitations. Specifically, we focus on representations derived from the singular value decomposition of the partial covariance operator and use them to construct a simple test statistic, reminiscent of the Hilbert-Schmidt Independence Criterion (HSIC). We also introduce a practical bi-level contrastive algorithm to learn these representations. Our theory links representation learning error to test performance and establishes asymptotic validity and power guarantees. Preliminary experiments suggest that this approach offers a practical and statistically grounded path toward scalable CI testing, bridging kernel-based theory with modern representation learning.




Optimal structure learning and conditional independence testing

Gao, Ming, Wang, Yuhao, Aragam, Bryon

arXiv.org Machine Learning

We establish a fundamental connection between optimal structure learning and optimal conditional independence testing by showing that the minimax optimal rate for structure learning problems is determined by the minimax rate for conditional independence testing in these problems. This is accomplished by establishing a general reduction between these two problems in the case of poly-forests, and demonstrated by deriving optimal rates for several examples, including Bernoulli, Gaussian and nonparametric models. Furthermore, we show that the optimal algorithm in these settings is a suitable modification of the PC algorithm. This theoretical finding provides a unified framework for analyzing the statistical complexity of structure learning through the lens of minimax testing.


Conditional Independence Test Based on Transport Maps

He, Chenxuan, Gao, Yuan, Zhu, Liping, Huang, Jian

arXiv.org Machine Learning

Testing conditional independence between two random vectors given a third is a fundamental and challenging problem in statistics, particularly in multivariate nonparametric settings due to the complexity of conditional structures. We propose a novel framework for testing conditional independence using transport maps. At the population level, we show that two well-defined transport maps can transform the conditional independence test into an unconditional independence test, this substantially simplifies the problem. These transport maps are estimated from data using conditional continuous normalizing flow models. Within this framework, we derive a test statistic and prove its consistency under both the null and alternative hypotheses. A permutation-based procedure is employed to evaluate the significance of the test. We validate the proposed method through extensive simulations and real-data analysis. Our numerical studies demonstrate the practical effectiveness of the proposed method for conditional independence testing.